In This Issue

• Market-On-Close: All of last week’s market-moving news and macro context in under 5 minutes + futures-snapshots

• Special Coverage: Is it Time to Get Bearish on Crude?

• The Latest Investor Sentiment Readings

• Institutional Support & Resistance Levels For Major Indices: Exactly where to look for support and resistance this week in SPY, QQQ, IWM & DIA

• Institutional Activity By Sector: Institutional order flow by sector including the top institutionally-backed names in those sectors. We break it all down and provide the key insights and take-aways you need to navigate institutional positioning this week.

• Top Institutional Order Flow In Individual Names: All of the largest sweeps and blocks on lit exchanges and hidden dark pools

• Investments In Focus: Bull vs Bear arguments for DE, BRK/B, NDAQ

• Top Institutionally-Backed Gainers & Losers: An explosive watchlist for day traders seeking high-volatility

• Normalized Performance By Thematics YTD (Sector, Industry, Factor, Energy, Metals, Currencies, and more): which corners of the markets are beating benchmarks, which ones are overlooked and which ones are over-crowded

• Key Econ Events and Earnings On-Deck For This Week

Market-On-Close

US Financial Markets Weekly Analysis: A Period of Resilience Amid Policy Shifts

The U.S. financial markets ended this past week on a high note, driven by a series of optimistic economic indicators, strong corporate earnings, and global influences that bolstered investor sentiment. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached one-and-a-half-week highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to a one-month high. The rally was largely attributed to robust performance in semiconductor stocks, better-than-expected U.S. economic data, and a favorable geopolitical environment.

Economic Indicators: Signs of Resilience

U.S. economic data released on Friday painted a picture of resilience and optimism. Housing starts for December surged by 15.8% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 1.499 million, a 10-month high that significantly exceeded forecasts of 1.327 million. Building permits, a proxy for future construction activity, declined slightly by 0.7% to 1.483 million but still outperformed expectations of 1.460 million. Meanwhile, December manufacturing production rose 0.6% month-over-month, marking the largest increase in four months and doubling analyst estimates of 0.2% growth. These figures highlight a robust housing market and manufacturing sector, despite the headwinds of higher interest rates.

Across the Atlantic, European markets mirrored this strength. The Euro Stoxx 50 index rallied, buoyed by improving global economic conditions. China's Q4 GDP grew by 5.4% year-over-year, surpassing expectations of 5.0% and achieving its fastest pace of expansion in six quarters. Additionally, China's December industrial production rose 6.2% year-over-year, its largest gain in eight months. These developments in China bolstered global growth prospects and provided a tailwind for equity markets worldwide.

Adding to the optimistic outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2025 global GDP growth forecast upward to 3.3% from 3.2%, citing stronger-than-expected U.S. demand. However, this optimism was tempered by hawkish commentary from Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Hammack, who emphasized that inflation remains a concern and signaled the Fed’s willingness to be “very patient” with further interest rate cuts.

Market Movers: Semiconductors and Cryptocurrency

Semiconductor stocks spearheaded the rally, with notable performances from industry leaders. Marvell Technology surged over 6%, GlobalFoundries gained more than 4%, and Nvidia climbed over 3%, contributing to broader market gains. This sector strength suggests returning investor confidence in technology as a growth driver, even amidst broader economic uncertainties.

Cryptocurrency markets also experienced a notable boost. Bitcoin surged more than 4% to reach a one-month high, fueled by a Bloomberg report indicating that President-elect Donald Trump plans to issue an executive order prioritizing cryptocurrency and establishing a crypto advisory council. This news lifted cryptocurrency-related stocks, with Coinbase Global, MicroStrategy, MARA Holdings, and Riot Platforms all climbing over 4%.

Earnings Season: Strong Start

The kickoff of Q4 earnings season further energized the markets. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, analysts project a 7.5% growth in S&P 500 earnings, marking the second-highest pre-season forecast in three years. Banking giants such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup reported significant profit surges, reflecting a favorable macroeconomic environment. Strong earnings results also propelled stocks in other sectors, including Schlumberger, which rose over 6% after reporting better-than-expected EBITDA and announcing a dividend increase.

Not all earnings news was positive, however. J.B. Hunt Transport Services fell over 7% after missing Q4 EPS expectations, while Walgreens Boots Alliance dropped more than 3% following a lawsuit from the U.S. Justice Department alleging improper dispensing of prescriptions.

Interest Rates: Yields in Focus

The bond market displayed mixed signals, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 0.5 basis points to 4.611%. Yields initially moved higher on strong economic data but retreated later in the week, reflecting easing inflation concerns. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a one-week low of 2.405%, signaling declining inflation expectations. Similarly, European bond yields declined, with the German 10-year bund yield falling to a one-week low of 2.506%, and the UK gilt yield dropping to a 1.5-week low of 4.611%.

The Federal Reserve’s stance remains a key focus for investors. Futures markets are pricing in a near-zero chance of a rate cut at the upcoming January FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed’s cautious approach. Historically, bond yields have peaked around the end of Fed rate-hike cycles, suggesting potential stabilization in the months ahead.

Sector Performance: Broad Gains with Select Weakness

Energy, materials, and financials sectors led the market higher, each gaining more than 5% for the week. In contrast, the technology and communication services sectors lagged, reflecting some profit-taking after recent strength. Among individual names, Intel surged over 9% on acquisition rumors, while Qorvo soared more than 14% following news that Starboard Value acquired a significant stake in the company.

However, not all sectors enjoyed gains. Retail sales data disappointed, with a modest 0.4% increase in December that fell short of consensus estimates. Weakness in consumer spending metrics, coupled with a slight uptick in jobless claims, tempered the week’s overall economic optimism.

Geopolitical and Policy Influences

Geopolitical developments also played a role in shaping market sentiment. A telephone conversation between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President-elect Trump signaled potential easing of U.S.-China tensions, which provided an additional boost to global equities. Domestically, investors are closely monitoring the policy agenda of the incoming administration, particularly regarding tariffs and fiscal stimulus, which could significantly influence economic growth and market dynamics.

The Road Ahead: Opportunities Amid Volatility

Looking forward, the interplay between inflation, interest rates, and corporate earnings will likely remain the dominant narrative. While the recent rally underscores market resilience, challenges persist, including elevated inflation in key sectors such as services and housing. Nevertheless, moderating wage growth and declining shelter costs suggest that inflation pressures could ease further, providing a more favorable backdrop for equities.

For investors, the current environment presents opportunities to deploy fresh capital strategically. Value and cyclical stocks appear well-positioned for outperformance, particularly if bond yields stabilize. On the fixed-income side, elevated yields in investment-grade bonds offer an attractive entry point for long-term investors seeking stability and income.

In summary, the past week demonstrated the U.S. financial markets’ capacity to navigate a complex array of economic and geopolitical factors. With strong corporate earnings, encouraging economic data, and signs of global recovery, the stage is set for continued market momentum, albeit with the potential for near-term volatility as investors digest evolving policy and economic conditions.

Futures Markets Snapshots

S&P 500: Sector Insights

Technology

• Performance: The technology sector broadly rallied, with major gains in MSFT (+2.41%), ORCL (+4.23%), and AVGO (+5.85%).

• Drivers: Optimism around AI adoption and cloud growth fueled gains in software and semiconductor stocks. Oracle benefited from upgrades highlighting its cloud expansion. Broadcom surged after a strong earnings report and positive outlook on AI-related demand.

• Notable Weakness: AAPL (-2.90%) underperformed, reflecting concerns about slowing demand for the iPhone 15 and weakening sales in China.

Consumer Cyclical

• Performance: Strong gains were seen in TSLA (+8.05%), AMZN (+3.20%), and HD (+5.00%).

• Drivers: Tesla rose on record deliveries and optimism surrounding the Cybertruck launch. Amazon gained as analysts highlighted robust AWS growth. Home Depot benefited from positive housing data and better-than-expected consumer spending on home improvement.

• Weakness: Retail giant WMT (-1.14%) declined slightly, reflecting concerns about potential margin pressures despite solid sales growth.

Communication Services

• Performance: The sector had mixed results, with GOOGL (+2.27%) leading gains while META (-0.50%) lagged.

• Drivers: Google was supported by analyst upgrades tied to strength in its cloud business and digital advertising. Meta faced pressure from profit-taking and concerns about VR spending despite solid advertising recovery.

Healthcare

• Performance: Mixed performance with standout weakness in LLY (-9.27%) and gains in UNH (+2.10%) and JNJ (+3.50%).

• Drivers: Eli Lilly suffered after data suggested potential competitive threats to its obesity drug pipeline. UnitedHealth rose on positive Medicare Advantage enrollment trends, while Johnson & Johnson gained on strong demand for its pharmaceutical products.

Industrials

• Performance: Strong across the board, with BA (+6.05%) and CAT (+6.76%) leading gains.

• Drivers: Boeing gained on optimism around rising aircraft orders, while Caterpillar benefited from resilient construction and infrastructure demand.

Energy

• Performance: Energy was one of the strongest sectors, with XOM (+5.42%) and CVX (+5.44%) leading the charge.

• Drivers: Crude oil prices rallied due to tightening global supplies and ongoing OPEC+ production cuts, lifting oil majors and exploration companies.

Financials

• Performance: Financials outperformed, with JPM (+8.04%), MA (+3.97%), and BAC (+3.15%) posting strong gains.

• Drivers: Rising interest rates boosted expectations for improved net interest margins, particularly for large banks. Analysts raised earnings forecasts for financial majors.

Utilities

• Performance: Modest gains across the sector, reflecting defensive positioning and easing pressure from bond yields.

Summary of Sector Insights

1. Technology and Energy Lead: AI optimism and strong oil prices drove gains in technology and energy sectors.

2. Consumer Cyclical Rebounds: Tesla and Amazon led on positive sales data and analyst upgrades, while Walmart underperformed slightly.

3. Healthcare Mixed: Eli Lilly suffered from competitive concerns, while UnitedHealth benefited from strong insurance trends.

4. Industrials Outperform: Boeing and Caterpillar gained on strong demand across aerospace and infrastructure.

5. Financial Strength: Large banks gained significantly as rising rates improved earnings prospects.

ETF Insights

US Large Cap ETFs

• SPY (+2.94%) and QQQ (+2.87%): Both large-cap ETFs rallied, driven by easing bond yields and renewed optimism around corporate earnings. Tech-heavy QQQ benefited from strength in semiconductors and AI-related growth stories.

• DIA (+3.67%): Outperformed broader indices, reflecting strength in industrials and energy stocks, which are major components of the Dow Jones.

US Sector ETFs

• Technology (XLK, +2.33%): Tech ETFs rose as bond yields eased, making growth stocks more attractive. Semiconductors saw strong gains, with SOXX (+5.29%) benefiting from ongoing demand for chips.

  • SOXL (+15.79%): Leveraged bullish semiconductor ETFs soared on renewed optimism around AI and chip demand.

  • SOXS (-14.54%): Bearish semiconductor ETFs tumbled as tech sentiment improved.

• Energy (XLE, +6.30%): Energy was one of the top-performing sectors as oil prices surged, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical concerns.

  • XOP (+4.41%): Oil exploration and production ETFs outperformed within the energy space, reflecting optimism around higher crude prices.

• Healthcare (XLV, +0.39%): Modest gains were driven by strength in large-cap pharmaceuticals, while biotech underperformed.

  • XBI (-1.64%): Biotech ETFs declined, weighed down by concerns over funding and regulatory pressures.

• Consumer Discretionary (XLY, +3.80%): Strong gains reflect improving consumer sentiment and better-than-expected retail performance.

  • ITB (+8.52%): Homebuilders outperformed, supported by lower mortgage rates, signaling stabilization in the housing market.

US Mid and Small Cap ETFs

• IJH (+4.54%) and IWM (+3.98%): Mid- and small-cap ETFs posted strong gains, reflecting broad market strength and a shift into more cyclically sensitive names.

  • TNA (+11.81%): Leveraged small-cap bullish ETFs soared as investors moved into riskier assets.

  • TZA (-10.85%): Bearish small-cap ETFs declined sharply in line with improving sentiment.

Fixed Income

• TLT (+2.02%) and IEF (+1.23%): Treasury ETFs rallied as bond yields fell, reflecting renewed demand for fixed-income assets amidst a potential pivot in Federal Reserve policy.

  • TMF (+5.58%): Leveraged long-dated Treasury ETFs benefited from the yield decline, reflecting increased interest in duration-sensitive bonds.

Commodities and Energy

• Crude Oil (USO, +2.33%): Oil ETFs rose as crude prices advanced on continued OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical concerns.

• Gold (GLD, +0.43%) and Silver (SLV, 0.00%): Precious metals were stable, reflecting a balance between safe-haven demand and easing inflation concerns.

International Markets

• China (FXI, +6.14%): Chinese ETFs rebounded, supported by government stimulus efforts and positive sentiment around potential economic stabilization.

  • YINN (+18.39%): Leveraged Chinese ETFs outperformed significantly as bullish sentiment returned.

• Emerging Markets (EEM, +2.43%): Emerging market ETFs gained broadly, reflecting a weaker U.S. dollar and improving risk sentiment.

Cryptocurrency ETFs

• BITO (+10.59%) and GBTC (+10.62%): Crypto-related ETFs surged as Bitcoin rallied, driven by growing institutional adoption and expectations of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals.

Key Takeaways

1. Tech and Energy Lead: Technology and energy ETFs were the biggest winners, fueled by easing yields and surging crude oil prices.

2. Small-Cap Recovery: Small-cap ETFs posted significant gains, reflecting renewed risk appetite and improved economic sentiment.

3. Fixed Income Strength: Treasury ETFs rallied as bond yields declined, attracting investors seeking safe-haven assets.

4. China Rebounds: Chinese ETFs saw strong gains due to policy support and stimulus measures aimed at stabilizing the economy.

5. Crypto Surge: Cryptocurrency ETFs rallied sharply alongside Bitcoin, driven by institutional demand and favorable regulatory developments.

This week’s performance reflects a broad-based rally across equities and bonds, driven by easing macro concerns and sector-specific tailwinds in energy, technology, and consumer discretionary.

Global Overview

Special Coverage: Is It Time To Get Bearish On Crude?

In recent months, the crude oil market has exhibited notable volatility, prompting investors and market observers to question whether we're approaching a bearish turning point. The latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) strongly suggests a bearish trajectory, with Brent crude prices projected to decline from current levels through 2026. Multiple factors, including macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical developments, seasonal patterns, and market signals from key industry players, are poised to influence crude oil prices in the near term.

Price Trajectory and Market Balance

Current Price Environment

December 2024 marked a critical point in the crude oil market as Brent crude oil averaged $74 per barrel, reflecting a $4 decline from the same period in 2023. Despite this decline, the annual average for 2024 settled at $81 per barrel, nearly unchanged from 2023's average of $82. While this stability might suggest a balanced market, it conceals significant shifts in market fundamentals that hint at increasing bearish pressure. Factors such as slowing demand recovery, geopolitical developments, and inventory builds are reshaping the crude oil landscape.

Forward Price Projections

The EIA’s projections for Brent crude outline a clear downward trend. In 2025, the average price is forecasted to be $74 per barrel, with a further decline to $66 per barrel in 2026. This bearish outlook is supported by a confluence of factors:

1. Near-term Strength: OPEC+ production cuts are expected to sustain prices during the first quarter of 2025, with an average of $76 per barrel.

2. Supply and Demand Imbalance: Progressive weakening from mid-2025 onward as supply growth begins to outpace demand recovery.

3. Inventory Dynamics: Anticipated inventory builds averaging 0.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 0.7 million b/d in 2026 signal weakening physical market fundamentals.

These trends highlight a challenging environment for crude oil, where temporary price support mechanisms are overshadowed by structural weaknesses.

Supply Dynamics

OPEC+ Production Policies

OPEC+ has historically played a pivotal role in stabilizing crude oil prices through coordinated production adjustments. In early 2025, production cuts are expected to result in inventory withdrawals of 0.5 million b/d during the first quarter, providing temporary support for prices. However, as the year progresses, the group’s strategy is anticipated to shift:

• Moderate Production Growth: OPEC+ production is forecast to grow by 0.2 million b/d in 2025, accelerating to 0.6 million b/d in 2026. While these increases are modest, they reflect a strategic balancing act to maintain market share without triggering significant inventory surpluses.

• Policy Cohesion Risks: The group’s ability to enforce production quotas among member states remains a critical uncertainty. Historical precedent suggests that individual member incentives often lead to quota violations, undermining collective efforts.

Non-OPEC+ Production Growth

Outside of OPEC+, production growth remains robust, albeit with signs of moderation. In 2025, non-OPEC+ output is expected to grow by 1.6 million b/d, slowing to 0.9 million b/d in 2026. Key drivers of this growth include:

1. United States: Shale production growth is expected to decelerate, contributing 0.3 million b/d in 2026, down from earlier years.

2. Canada: The completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline will support sustained production growth.

3. Brazil and Guyana: Offshore developments continue to bolster output, with Brazil’s pre-salt reservoirs and Guyana’s new offshore facilities playing prominent roles.

These dynamics underscore a competitive landscape, where non-OPEC+ producers are capitalizing on technological advancements and new infrastructure to increase market presence.

Demand Patterns

Global Consumption Trends

Global oil demand growth has struggled to regain pre-pandemic momentum. The EIA projects growth of 1.3 million b/d in 2025 and 1.1 million b/d in 2026, compared to the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 1.5 million b/d. Contributing factors include:

• Sluggish Economic Recovery: Lingering economic headwinds in major consuming regions have tempered demand growth.

• Energy Transition: Accelerated adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles is gradually reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

In 2024, global oil demand grew by an estimated 0.9 million b/d, reflecting these broader trends. This slower pace of recovery has significant implications for market balance and price trajectories.

Regional Demand Variations

Regional disparities in oil demand growth further complicate the global outlook:

1. Non-OECD Markets: Emerging economies, particularly India and China, are driving demand growth. India’s oil demand is expected to increase by 0.3 million b/d annually in 2025 and 2026, fueled by rising transportation needs. China, meanwhile, shows signs of recovery with projected growth of 0.2 million b/d, supported by government stimulus measures.

2. OECD Markets: Developed economies are experiencing flat to declining oil consumption. The OECD’s demand is projected to increase marginally by 0.2 million b/d in 2025 before contracting slightly in 2026. Improved energy efficiency and a shift toward cleaner energy sources are key drivers of this trend.

Seasonal Factors

Seasonal demand fluctuations, such as winter heating requirements and hurricane-induced disruptions, add another layer of complexity. However, recent trends indicate a diminishing impact:

• Winter Demand Peaks: Unseasonably warm winters and advancements in energy efficiency have reduced seasonal demand spikes for heating oil.

• Hurricane Season: Despite the U.S. Gulf Coast’s vulnerability, the 2024 hurricane season was relatively mild, minimizing supply disruptions. This underscores the increasing resilience of the global energy system to weather-related shocks.

Market Risks and Uncertainties

Downside Risks

The crude oil market faces several downside risks that could exacerbate bearish trends:

1. OPEC+ Cohesion: Weakening commitment to production restraint among member states could lead to oversupply.

2. Demand Uncertainty: Continued below-trend global growth and economic challenges in key consuming regions present significant risks.

Upside Risks

Conversely, certain factors could disrupt the bearish trajectory:

1. Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and maritime security concerns pose risks of supply disruptions.

2. Production Challenges: Technical difficulties in new production regions and investment shortfalls in mature basins could constrain supply growth.

These uncertainties highlight the importance of adaptability and risk management in navigating the evolving energy landscape.

Technical Market Structure

Inventory Dynamics

Projected inventory builds through 2026 indicate weakening physical market fundamentals. Rising inventories are expected to place downward pressure on time spreads, challenging OPEC+ efforts to sustain prices. These dynamics are critical indicators of market health and future price trends.

Price Structure

The forward curve reflects a bearish outlook, with near-term support in Q1 2025 giving way to progressive weakening. By the end of 2026, Brent crude prices are projected to target $66 per barrel, underscoring the medium-term challenges facing the market.

Investment Implications

Energy Sector Positioning

Investors are advised to adopt a defensive strategy in light of the bearish outlook. Key considerations include:

• Reducing Upstream Exposure: Pure-play upstream companies face heightened risks in a declining price environment.

• Focusing on Integrated Majors: Companies with downstream capabilities, such as ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), are better positioned to weather price volatility.

• Prioritizing Low-Cost Producers: Firms with strong balance sheets and efficient operations are more resilient to price fluctuations.

Individual Stock Signals

Sector-specific trends provide additional insights:

• Drilling Companies: Weakness in stocks like Transocean (RIG) and Helmerich & Payne (HP) reflects market skepticism about future upstream activity growth.

• Services Companies: Guidance from major providers like Schlumberger (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL) indicates expectations of moderate growth.

• Integrated Majors: Stability in shares of ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) suggests confidence in current price levels, albeit without significant upside potential.

Trading Strategies

Market participants should consider tactical approaches to navigate the bearish environment:

• Reducing Long Exposure: Gradual reductions in energy sector allocations can mitigate downside risks.

• Protective Strategies: Options and hedging instruments can provide downside protection for mid-2025 and beyond.

• Calendar Spreads: Leveraging inventory builds through calendar spread strategies aligns with market fundamentals.

Conclusion

The evidence strongly supports a bearish outlook for crude oil prices through 2026. The combination of robust non-OPEC+ supply growth, moderating demand increases, and anticipated inventory builds creates significant downward pressure on prices. While near-term support exists from OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical tensions, the medium-term trajectory points to lower prices.

The EIA’s forecast of Brent crude averaging $74 per barrel in 2025 and declining to $66 per barrel in 2026 aligns with these fundamental drivers. For investors, a defensive positioning strategy emphasizing quality over quantity in energy sector exposure is prudent. The gradual nature of the projected price decline also presents opportunities for tactical positioning, enabling informed decision-making in an evolving market landscape.

By understanding the interplay of supply, demand, and geopolitical factors, market participants can better navigate the complexities of the crude oil market, positioning themselves to capitalize on emerging trends and mitigate risks.

US Investor Sentiment

Insider Trading

Insider trading occurs when a company’s leaders or major shareholders trade stock based on non-public information. Tracking these trades can reveal insider expectations about the company’s future. For example, large purchases before an earnings report or drug trial results might indicate confidence in upcoming good news.

%Bull-Bear Spread

The %Bull-Bear Spread chart is a sentiment indicator that shows the difference between the percentage of bullish and bearish investors, often derived from surveys or sentiment data, such as the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) sentiment survey. This spread tells investors about the prevailing mood in the market and can provide insights into market extremes and potential turning points.

1. Bullish or Bearish Sentiment:

   • When the spread is positive, it means more investors are bullish than bearish, indicating optimism about the market’s direction.

   • A negative spread indicates more bearish sentiment, meaning more investors expect the market to decline.

2. Contrarian Indicator:

   • The %Bull-Bear Spread is often used as a contrarian indicator. For example, extremely high levels of bullish sentiment might suggest that the market is overly optimistic and could be due for a correction.

   • Similarly, when bearish sentiment is extremely high, it might indicate that the market is overly pessimistic, and a rally could be on the horizon.

3. Market Extremes and Reversals:

   • Historically, extreme values of the spread (both positive and negative) can signal turning points in the market. A very high positive spread can signal market exuberance, while a very low or negative spread may indicate fear or capitulation.

NAAIM Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index (National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index) measures the average exposure to U.S. equity markets as reported by its member firms. These are typically active money managers who provide their equity exposure levels weekly. The index offers insight into how much these managers are investing in equities at any given time, ranging from being fully short (-100%) to leveraged long (up to +200%).

AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is a weekly survey conducted by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) to gauge the mood of individual investors regarding the direction of the stock market over the next six months. It provides insights into whether investors are feeling bullish (expecting the market to rise), bearish (expecting the market to fall), or neutral (expecting the market to stay about the same).

Key Points:

• Bullish Sentiment: Reflects the percentage of investors who believe the stock market will rise in the next six months.

• Bearish Sentiment: Represents those who expect a decline.

• Neutral Sentiment: Reflects investors who anticipate little to no market movement.

The survey is widely followed as a contrarian indicator, meaning that extreme levels of bullishness or bearishness can sometimes signal market turning points. For example, when a large number of investors are overly optimistic (high bullish sentiment), it could suggest a market top, while excessive pessimism (high bearish sentiment) may indicate a market bottom is near.

SPX Put/Call Ratio

The SPX Put/Call Ratio is an indicator that is used to gauge market sentiment. This is calculated as the ratio between trading S&P 500 put options and S&P call options. A high put/call ratio can indicate fear in the markets, while a low ratio indicates confidence. For example, in 2015, the Put-Call ratio was as high as 3.77 because of market fears stemming from various global economic issues like a GDP growth slowdown in China and a Greek debt default.

CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio

The CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) equity put/call ratio is a sentiment indicator used by traders and analysts to gauge market sentiment and potential shifts in investor behavior. It is calculated by dividing the volume of put options by the volume of call options on equities. Here’s what it reveals and how it is generally interpreted:

• High Put/Call Ratio: When the put/call ratio is high (above 1.0), it suggests that there is more demand for put options than call options. This typically reflects a more bearish sentiment, as investors may be hedging against potential declines or expecting the market to fall.

• Low Put/Call Ratio: Conversely, a low put/call ratio (below 0.7) indicates a higher volume of call options compared to puts, reflecting bullish sentiment. Investors may be expecting upward momentum and are positioning themselves to profit from price gains

ISEE Sentiment Index

The ISEE (International Securities Exchange Sentiment) Index is a measure of investor sentiment derived from options trading. Unlike traditional put/call ratios, the ISEE Index focuses only on opening long customer transactions and is adjusted to remove market-maker and firm trades, providing a purer sentiment reading.

The ISEE Index typically ranges from 0 to 200, with readings above 100 indicating more call options being bought relative to put options, suggesting bullish sentiment. Conversely, readings below 100 suggest bearish sentiment, with more puts being purchased relative to calls.

New Highs - New Lows

The New Highs - New Lows indicator (NH-NL) displays the daily difference between the number of stocks reaching new 52-week highs and the number of stocks reaching new 52-week lows. The NH-NL indicator generally reaches its extreme lows slightly before a major market bottom. As the market then turns up from the major bottom, the indicator jumps up rapidly. During this period, many new stocks are making new highs because it's easy to make a new high when prices have been depressed for a long time. The NH-NL indicator oscillates around zero. If the indicator is positive, the bulls are in control. If it is negative, the bears are in control. As the cycle matures, a divergence often occurs as fewer and fewer stocks are making new highs (the indicator falls), yet the market indices continue to reach new highs. This is a classic bearish divergence that indicates that the current upward trend is weak and may reverse.

ARMS Index

The Arms Index, also known as the TRIN (Short-Term TRading INdex), was developed by Richard Arms in the 1960s. It is calculated by dividing the ratio of advancing stocks to declining stocks by the ratio of advancing volume to declining volume. Interpreting the Arms Index involves looking at its value in relation to certain thresholds. A value below "1" is considered bullish, indicating that advancing stocks and volume dominate the market. Conversely, a value above "1" is considered bearish, suggesting that declining stocks and volume are more prevalent. Extremely low values (below 0.5) or high values (above 2) are often seen as potential reversal signals.

CME Fedwatch

What is the likelihood that the Fed will change the Federal target rate at upcoming FOMC meetings, according to interest rate traders? Use CME FedWatch to track the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices.

CNN Fear & Greed Constituent Data Points & Composite Index

Final Composite Fear & Greed Index Reading

Institutional S/R Levels for Major Indices

When you’re a large institutional player, your primary goal is to find liquidity - places to do a ton of business with the least amount of slippage possible. VolumeLeaders.com automatically identifies and visually plots the exact spots where institutions are doing business and where they are likely to return for more. It’s one of the primary reasons “support” and “resistance” concepts work and truly one of the reasons “price has memory”.

Levels from the VolumeLeaders.com platform can help you formulate trades theses about:

• Where to add or take profit

• Where to de-risk or hedge

• What strikes to target for options

• Where to expect support or resistance

And this is just a small sample; there are countless ways to leverage this information into trades that express your views on the market. The platform covers thousands of tickers on multiple timeframes to accommodate all types of traders. Observe for yourself how accurate the levels are by marking-up your charts with the information in the “Trade Levels” boxes and play-along in real-time this week.

SPY 0.00%↑

SPY has rallied sharply off the January lows near $580, clearing multiple layers of prior resistance in the mid‐$580s and $590 area. The ETF is now approaching the next band of overhead supply near $600–$605, where past high‐volume trading indicates concentrated sell orders may still linger.

If SPY can break through and sustain above $605, it would suggest that buyers have fully absorbed recent supply, potentially setting the stage for a test of December’s highs near $610. Conversely, failure to clear this upper zone—or a dip back below the $590–$595 region—would signal that sellers remain active, heightening the chance of another pullback.

QQQ 0.00%↑

QQQ has broken above the $515–$518 zone where recent institutional trades were clustered, suggesting buyers are absorbing supply in that region. Price is now pressing into the $520–$525 area, which served as a key inflection point in December. A convincing break above $525 would indicate renewed bullish momentum, potentially setting the stage for a run toward the upper $530s.

On the other hand, a failure to maintain traction above $515–$518—or a dip back below that zone—would raise the odds of a deeper pullback, possibly revisiting $510 support. Overall, QQQ’s near‐term direction hinges on how it resolves this newly tested overhead band.

IWM 0.00%↑

IWM has been trading in a relatively tight range between roughly $220–$225, where multiple high‐volume trades created both support and resistance zones. After repeatedly testing and holding above $220, the ETF recently pushed higher, hinting that buyers are absorbing overhead supply near $222–$224. If IWM can sustain momentum above $225 and challenge the next layer of resistance around $228, it could signal a more constructive uptrend. However, a failure to clear that ceiling—or a slip back below $220—would suggest that sellers are still in control, potentially leading to a retest of the lower end of this trading range.

DIA -0.01%↓

DIA has extended its rebound from January’s lows near $415, pushing above key volume‐based levels around $420–$425. The ETF recently tested the mid‐$430s, an area that has acted as overhead resistance in the past. If DIA can break decisively above $435 on strong volume, it would suggest buyers are in control and open the door to a test of the late‐December highs near $440. Conversely, a failure to hold above the $425–$430 zone would indicate that sellers remain active, raising the risk of a deeper pullback toward prior support in the low‐$420s.

Institutional Order Flow

Rolling 1-Yr Dollars By Day

This chart shows institutional activity by dollars by day on a rolling 1-year basis. From a theoretical standpoint, examining a chart of daily institutional dollar activity over the course of a year can offer several insights and possible inferences, though all should be approached with caution since the data alone may not prove causality or confirm underlying reasons. Some potential takeaways include:

1. Event-Driven Behavior:
   Sharp, singular spikes on certain days might correlate with major market-moving events. These could include central bank policy announcements, significant geopolitical news, sudden macroeconomic data releases (like employment reports or GDP data), earnings seasons for large-cap companies, or unexpected shocks (e.g., mergers, acquisitions, regulatory changes).

2. Liquidity Dynamics:
   Institutions often concentrate large trades on days with higher expected liquidity. For instance, heightened activity might coincide with index reconstitutions, option expiration dates, or the days leading up to or following a major index rebalance, when large amounts of capital shift hands simultaneously.

3. Risk Management and Hedging Activity:
   Institutions may significantly adjust their exposures on days that are critical from a risk management perspective. Large spikes can occur if hedge funds, pension funds, or asset managers are rolling over futures contracts, initiating or closing out large hedges, or reacting to volatility triggers.

4. Market Sentiment Indicators:
   While the data is purely transactional, the sheer volume of institutional involvement on certain days might indirectly hint at changing sentiment or strategic shifts.

In essence, a chart like this can lead you to hypothesize that institutional trading volumes are not constant or random but rather influenced by a mix of predictable calendar effects, major market events, liquidity considerations, risk management decisions, and strategic allocation shifts.

Last Week’s Institutional Activity By Sector

This is an incredibly important chart to watch as it contains lots of nuanced suggestions at a thematic level. Watch this chart closely week-to-week to stay informed about where institutional money is flowing, adjust your strategies based on momentum, align your portfolio with macroeconomic and market trends, and manage risks more effectively by avoiding sectors losing institutional favor. The Top 10 active sectors are identified and the rest grouped as “Other”.

• Sector Rotation Insights: The chart highlights which sectors are attracting institutional activity and which are losing favor. Institutions often lead market trends, so tracking shifts in their focus can indicate sector rotations.

• Sentiment Analysis: The level of institutional activity reflects confidence in specific sectors. Rising activity in traditionally defensive sectors (e.g., healthcare, utilities) may indicate caution, while a surge in growth sectors (e.g., technology, consumer discretionary) could suggest optimism.

• Emerging Trends: Sudden spikes in a previously overlooked sector, like industrials or consumer staples, might hint at emerging opportunities or structural shifts.

• Macro Themes: Changes in sector activity often align with broader macroeconomic themes like inflation, interest rates, or geopolitical events. For instance:

  • Increased activity in energy might indicate concerns about oil supply or rising prices.

  • Growth in technology could align with innovations or favorable policies.

• Risk Management: Declining institutional activity in a sector might signal weakening fundamentals or heightened risks.

• Spotting Overcrowding: Excessive activity in a single sector over multiple weeks may suggest overcrowding, which could lead to heightened volatility if institutions begin to exit.

Sector By Day

Top Names By Sector

This Week’s Institutional Order Flow Insights

1. Sector Breakdown of Total Inflows

   • Technology: $173.49 billion (largest sector inflow, 23.65% of total inflows).

   • Large Caps: $96.24 billion (13.12% of total inflows).

   • Healthcare: $66.08 billion (9.01% of total inflows).

   • Financial Services: $67.75 billion (9.24% of total inflows).

   • Consumer Discretionary: $60.03 billion (8.19% of total inflows).

   • Energy: $25.64 billion (3.5% of total inflows).

   • Industrials: $49.31 billion (6.72% of total inflows).

   • Bonds: $35.82 billion (4.88% of total inflows).

   Grand Total: $733.35 billion.

2. Top Individual Stocks by Sector

   • Technology: NVIDIA ($26.7B), Apple ($20.3B), Microsoft ($16.9B).

   • Financial Services: JPMorgan ($4.7B), Berkshire Hathaway ($4.1B), Visa ($3.8B).

   • Consumer Discretionary: Tesla ($13B), Amazon ($10.6B), Nike ($1.83B).

   • Healthcare: Eli Lilly ($3.9B), UnitedHealth ($3.4B), Johnson & Johnson ($2.4B).

   • Energy: ExxonMobil ($2.98B), Chevron ($1.93B), Energy ETFs (XLE, $1.47B).

3. Notable ETF Inflows

   • SPY (S&P 500 ETF): $43.67B.

   • QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF): $24.1B.

   • IVV (Core S&P 500 ETF): $5.08B.

4. Daily Trends

   • Technology had the highest daily inflows on January 17th, 2025, reaching over $51.4B for the day.

   • Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare saw steady growth throughout the week.

   • Bonds peaked mid-week ($8.52B on January 15th, 2025), reflecting hedging activity.

Potential Implications

1. Technology’s Dominance Reflects Growth Optimism

   1. Institutions are heavily favoring Technology, likely due to strong fundamentals and resilient demand for innovation-driven products (e.g., AI, semiconductors, and cloud computing).

   2. Short-Term Risk: If key earnings (e.g., Microsoft, NVIDIA) disappoint, these flows may reverse quickly.

2. Large-Cap and Broad-Market ETF Inflows Signal Stability

   1. Significant inflows into SPY and QQQ highlight a preference for stability in high-liquidity assets. This suggests confidence in broader market resilience but also hedging against volatility.

3. Financial Services Pre-Earnings Positioning

   1. Flows into JPMorgan, Berkshire Hathaway, and Visa suggest bullish positioning ahead of major bank earnings. However, weak results (e.g., loan growth or credit quality concerns) could negatively impact this sector’s momentum.

4. Consumer Discretionary Gains Indicate Consumer Confidence

   1. Tesla and Amazon’s strong inflows align with optimism in consumer spending and discretionary purchases. If macroeconomic indicators (e.g., retail sales) weaken, this sector may face headwinds.

5. Bonds and Healthcare Reflect Risk Management

   1. Bond inflows mid-week suggest a hedging strategy against market uncertainty, while Healthcare inflows highlight defensive positioning to weather economic volatility.

6. Energy and Industrials See Moderate Strength

   1. These sectors’ flows align with macroeconomic factors like stabilizing oil prices (for Energy) and infrastructure spending (for Industrials). Continued strength will depend on geopolitical developments and government spending.

7. Overall Market Sentiment

   1. Bullish Flows: The dominance of inflows into Technology and Large Caps, paired with steady Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare gains, suggests a bullish short-term sentiment.

   2. Hedging Activity: Bond inflows, while smaller, indicate some caution remains among institutions.

Conclusions

1. Earnings Season Critical for Momentum

   • Positive earnings in Technology, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary could sustain current inflows.

   • Missed expectations could shift flows into Healthcare or Bonds as defensive plays.

2. Macro Factors to Watch

   • Continued cooling in inflation or dovish Fed signals could fuel further gains in Technology and Large Caps.

   • Geopolitical tensions or higher-than-expected inflation might redirect flows into defensive sectors.

3. Opportunities for Tactical Plays

   • Growth sectors (Technology, Consumer Discretionary) offer upside, while bonds and Healthcare provide hedging opportunities in case of market volatility.

Top Institutional Order Flow In Individual Names

Many excellent trade ideas and sources of inspiration can be found in these prints. While only the top 30 from each group are displayed, the complete results are accessible in VolumeLeaders.com for you to explore at your convenience any time. Remember to configure trade alerts within the platform to ensure you never overlook institutional order flows that capture your interest or are significant to you. The blue charts encompass all types of trades, including blocks on lit exchanges; the purple charts exclusively depict dark pool trades; and the green charts represent sweeps only.

Largest By Aggregated Dollars Transacted

Largest Individual Trades by Dollars

Top Aggregate Dark Pool Activity by Ticker

Largest Individual Dark Pool Trades by Dollars

Top Aggregate Sweeps by Ticker

Top Individual Sweeps by Dollars Transacted

Last Week’s Institutionally-Backed Gainers & Losers

If you’re going to bet on a name, consider one that is officially endorsed by an institution! These are the top percent gainers (green) and percent losers (red) from this week’s open-to-close that had a trade price greater than $20 and institutional involvement. Continue watching tickers from this and prior stacks as these names frequently turn into multi-leg trades with a lot of movement!

Top Institutionally Backed Gainers

Top Institutionally Backed Losers

Last Week’s Billion-Dollar Prints

Tickers that printed a trade worth at least $1B last week get a special shout-out… Welcome to the club. Subs can use this convenience link to pull-up the same screen shown below. These are massive commitments by institutions that should not be ignored.

Investments In Focus: Bull vs Bear Arguments

Please read “Institutional S/R Levels For Major Indices” at the top of this stack to understand the nature and importance of what we’re looking at here visually. Institutions leave footprints that VolumeLeaders.com can illustrate for you while providing context to assess things like institutional conviction and urgency. Theses and data given below are not financial advice, just personal observations that may be wrong; consult a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

DE 0.02%↑

Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) is a leading manufacturer of agricultural, construction, and forestry machinery, as well as diesel engines and lawn care equipment.

Bullish Perspective:

1. Strong Financial Performance: Deere & Company has demonstrated robust financial results, with a notable increase in stock price from $423.70 at the beginning of the year to $455.44, reflecting investor confidence and effective operational strategies.

2. Positive Analyst Outlook: The company has received a consensus "Buy" rating from 18 analysts, with a 12-month average price target of $443.67, indicating potential for continued growth.

3. Innovative Product Development: Deere's commitment to innovation, including advancements in precision agriculture technology, positions the company to capitalize on increasing demand for efficient farming solutions.

4. Global Market Expansion: The company's strategic initiatives to expand its global footprint, particularly in emerging markets, offer opportunities for revenue diversification and growth.

5. Operational Efficiency: Deere's focus on cost management and operational efficiency has contributed to improved profit margins, enhancing overall financial stability.

Bearish Perspective:

1. Economic Sensitivity: As a manufacturer of capital goods, Deere's sales are closely tied to economic cycles. Economic downturns or reduced agricultural spending can negatively impact demand for its products.

2. Regulatory Challenges: The company faces potential regulatory hurdles, including environmental regulations and trade policies, which could affect operational costs and market access.

3. Competitive Pressure: The machinery industry is highly competitive, with rivals potentially eroding Deere's market share through innovation or pricing strategies.

4. Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain issues, such as material shortages or logistical challenges, could hinder production and delivery schedules, affecting financial performance.

5. Technological Risks: While innovation is a strength, rapid technological changes require continuous investment in research and development, posing financial risks if new products do not achieve expected market acceptance.

In summary, Deere & Company's strong financial performance, positive analyst outlook, and commitment to innovation position it favorably for future growth. However, potential investors should consider economic sensitivities, regulatory challenges, and competitive pressures when evaluating investment decisions.

$BRK.B

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.B) is a multinational conglomerate led by CEO Warren Buffett, with diverse holdings in insurance, utilities, manufacturing, and retail sectors.

Bullish Perspective:

1. Robust Financial Performance: In 2024, Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares appreciated by 23%, outperforming the S&P 500 index.

2. Significant Cash Reserves: The company has accumulated substantial cash reserves, reaching approximately $325 billion, providing flexibility for future investments or acquisitions.

3. Diversified Portfolio: Berkshire's diverse holdings across various industries, including significant investments in companies like American Express, offer stability and potential for growth.

4. Strong Leadership and Succession Planning: Preparations for leadership transition, including the potential appointment of Greg Abel as CEO and Howard Buffett as nonexecutive chairman, aim to ensure continuity and uphold the company's values.

5. Strategic Investment Approach: Berkshire's cautious investment strategy, including reducing holdings in overvalued markets, positions the company to capitalize on future opportunities.

Bearish Perspective:

1. Market Valuation Concerns: The "Buffett Indicator," which compares market capitalization to GDP, suggests that the stock market is highly valued, potentially limiting future growth.

2. Leadership Transition Uncertainty: While succession plans are in place, the eventual departure of Warren Buffett may impact investor confidence and the company's strategic direction.

3. Challenges in Deploying Cash Reserves: The substantial cash holdings indicate difficulties in identifying attractive investment opportunities, which may affect future returns.

4. Exposure to Market Fluctuations: Berkshire's performance is influenced by the broader market, and economic downturns could negatively impact its diverse portfolio.

5. Potential Overvaluation: Some analysts suggest that Berkshire's stock may be overvalued, with a consensus price target of $457.50, slightly below the current trading price.

In summary, Berkshire Hathaway's strong financial performance, substantial cash reserves, and diversified portfolio underscore its resilience and growth potential. However, investors should be mindful of market valuation concerns, leadership transition uncertainties, and challenges in effectively deploying cash reserves when considering investment decisions.

NDAQ 0.00%↑

Nasdaq, Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ) is a global technology company serving capital markets and other industries worldwide, operating in three segments: Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology, and Market Services.

Bullish Perspective:

1. Diversified Revenue Streams: Nasdaq has expanded beyond traditional exchange services, generating significant revenue from data products, market technology, and investment intelligence, reducing reliance on transaction-based income.

2. Positive Analyst Outlook: Analysts have a consensus "Overweight" rating on NDAQ, with a median 12-month price target of $88.00, suggesting potential upside from the current price.

3. Strategic Acquisitions: The company's acquisitions, such as Verafin and Adenza, enhance its technology offerings in fraud detection and regulatory software, positioning Nasdaq as a leader in financial technology solutions.

4. Strong Market Position: Nasdaq operates multiple exchanges and platforms, maintaining a significant presence in the global financial markets, which provides a competitive advantage and opportunities for growth.

5. Commitment to Innovation: The company's focus on integrating advanced technologies, including cloud computing and blockchain, demonstrates its commitment to innovation and meeting evolving market demands.

Bearish Perspective:

1. Competitive Pressures: Nasdaq faces increasing competition from new and existing exchanges, which could impact its market share and profitability.

2. Regulatory Risks: As a key player in global financial markets, Nasdaq is subject to extensive regulation. Changes in regulatory policies could adversely affect its operations and financial performance.

3. Market Volatility Exposure: The company's performance is influenced by market activity levels; prolonged periods of low volatility or trading volumes could negatively impact revenue.

4. Integration Challenges: While strategic acquisitions offer growth opportunities, they also pose integration risks that could lead to operational disruptions or fail to achieve anticipated synergies.

5. Valuation Concerns: Some analyses suggest that NDAQ is trading at a premium compared to its fair value, indicating potential overvaluation.

In summary, Nasdaq, Inc. benefits from diversified revenue streams, strategic acquisitions, and a strong market position. However, investors should be mindful of competitive pressures, regulatory risks, and potential overvaluation when considering investment decisions.

Summary Of Thematic Performance YTD

VolumeLeaders.com provides a lot of pre-built filters for thematics so that you can quickly dive into specific areas of the market. These performance overviews are provided here only for inspiration. Consider targeting leaders and/or laggards in the best and worst sectors, for example.

S&P By Sector

S&P By Industry

Commodities: Energy

Commodities: Metals

Commodities: Agriculture

Country ETFs

Currencies

Global Yields

Factors: Style

Factors: Size vs Value

Factors: Qualitative

Social Media Favs

Analyzing social sentiment can provide valuable insights for investment strategies by offering a pulse on public perception, mood, and market sentiment that traditional financial indicators might not capture. Here’s how social sentiment analysis can enhance investment decisions:

1. Market Momentum: Positive or negative social sentiment can signal impending momentum shifts. When public opinion on a stock, sector, or asset class changes sharply, it can create buying or selling pressure, especially if that sentiment becomes widespread.

2. Early Detection of Trends: Social sentiment data can help investors spot trends before they show up in technical or fundamental data. For example, increased positive chatter around a particular company or sector might indicate growing interest or excitement, which could lead to price appreciation.

3. Gauge Retail Investor Impact: With the rise of retail investor platforms, collective sentiment on social media can lead to significant price movements (e.g., meme stocks). Understanding how retail investors view certain stocks can help in identifying high-volatility opportunities.

4. Event Reaction Monitoring: Social sentiment can provide real-time reactions to news events, product releases, or earnings reports. Investors can use this information to gauge market reaction quickly and adjust their strategies accordingly.

5. Complementing Quantitative Models: By adding a social sentiment layer to quantitative models, investors can enhance predictions. For example, a model that tracks historical price and volume data might perform even better when factoring in sentiment trends as a measure of market psychology.

6. Risk Management: Negative sentiment spikes can be a signal of potential downturns or increased volatility. By monitoring sentiment, investors might avoid or hedge against investments in companies experiencing a public relations crisis or facing negative perceptions.

7. Long-Term Sentiment Trends: Sustained sentiment trends, whether positive or negative, often mirror longer-term market cycles. Tracking sentiment trends over time can help identify shifts in investor psychology that could affect longer-term investments or sector rotations.

For these reasons, sentiment analysis, when combined with other tools, can provide a comprehensive view of both immediate market reactions and underlying investor attitudes, helping investors position themselves strategically across various time frames. Here are the most mentioned/discussed tickers on Reddit from some of the most active Subreddits for trading:

Events On Deck This Week

Econ Events By Day of Week

Anticipated Earnings By Day of Week